Newtmentum Crashing In Florida

When Florida voters go to the polls to select Willard Romney as their “nominy” on Tuesday, we’ll say au revoir to Newt Gingrich and the coronation for Romney will finally begin.

Oh, wait, we’ve seen that play out before and it will most certainly not come to pass.

I think Newt is right when he says this is going to the convention. Every time he surges, Republicans are reminded of how much they detest him. Then they swing back to Romney, but then remember how much they hate him, too. This is just some bizarre shit by Republicans. Every week they are divided on who to show up for. Romney is clearly the safest, but Newt knows how to pull all the right levers.

Maybe Republicans are just hoping that their knight in shining armor comes through. There’s still time to do it and it would erase what has been an embarrassing month for Republicans (actually, it’s been an embarrassing 30+ years, but who is counting?).

Republicans are just going to keep going back and forth. My gut tells me this comes down to the Midwest. I think the northeast and rust belt area will go Romney. I think Gingrich brings it home in the south (and easily). California, Oregon, Nevada and Utah should be Romney W’s. But Big Sky country? Kansas? Missouri? Oklahoma? They love their politicians mean and vitriolic.

Here’s my state-by-state pick for the winner:

Florida – Romney

Nevada – Romney

Maine – Romney

Colorado/Missouri* – Gingrich || Minnesota – Romney

Arizona – Gingrich || Michigan – Romney

Washington – Romney

Alaska/Georgia/Idaho/North Dakota/Ohio/Oklahoma/Tennessee – Gingrich || Massachusetts/Vermont/Virginia – Romney

Wyoming – Gingrich

Illinois – Romney

Louisiana – Gingrich

Wisconsin/Texas – Gingrich || Maryland – Romney

Connecticut/Delaware/New York/Pennsylvania/Rhode Island – Romney

Indiana/North Carolina/West Virginia – Gingrich

Nebraska – Gingrich || Oregon – Romney

Arkansas/Kentucky – Gingrich

California/New Jersey – Romney || Montana/New Mexico/South Dakota – Gingrich

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